MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0386

ACUS11 KWNS 092320
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092319
TXZ000-100115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0386
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0619 PM CDT SUN MAR 09 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF W CNTRL INTO NW/N CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 092319Z - 100115Z

STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 01-02Z. THOUGH
AT LEAST A BRIEF RISK FOR LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS MAY
EXIST...OVERALL THREAT STILL APPEARS MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT A WATCH
MAY NOT BE NEEDED.

AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOW UNDERWAY. THIS APPEARS
TO BE IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED
CIRCULATION EMANATING FROM A BROADER SCALE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AS STRONGER UPPER JET MAXIMA CONTINUE TO
DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH...THE
LEAD IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

WITHIN ONLY A WEAKLY CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME...FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY VIGOROUS...AND SUPPORTIVE OF AN
EXPANDING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN THE PRESENCE OF A WEAKLY UNSTABLE
AND WEAK TO MODERATELY SHEARED FLOW REGIME. AS DECOUPLING OF THE
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500
J/KG...COMMENCES TOWARD 00-01Z...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT A 30-35
KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
AND...THIS WILL MAINTAIN A STEADILY MOISTENING INFLOW INTO
CONVECTION...WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMING FOCUSED NEAR
ABILENE.

GIVEN THE UNSATURATED NATURE OF THE LOWER/MID-LEVELS...AND THE
PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EVAPORATIVE
COOLING NEAR A GROWING/CONSOLIDATING PRECIPITATION CORE COULD BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF A LOCALIZED DOWNBURST...BEFORE MORE RAPID BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLING REDUCES DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL LATER THIS EVENING.
UNTIL THEN...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO REMAIN A RISK NEAR
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION CORES.

.KERR.. 03/09/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...

32230101 32790074 33100020 33189913 33099889 32729860
32179855 31719885 31539953 31480043 31920096

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