SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142359
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-150030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0402
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN TX/SRN AR/NRN LA/PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 142359Z - 150030Z
WW IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR FAR NERN TX INTO NRN LA/SRN AR AND PARTS
OF WRN/CENTRAL MS.
EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL MS WWD THROUGH FAR SRN AR INTO OK. MOIST AIR MASS
ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING HAS
RESULTED IN MODERATE INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS THIS REGION.
INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF SRN HIGH PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
LIFT WITHIN 80+ KT WLY MID LEVEL JET TRANSLATING EWD INTO NERN TX/
SRN AR/NRN LA BY LATE THIS EVENING WILL FURTHER ENHANCE UPDRAFT
POTENTIAL. STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES /7-8.5 C/KM/ WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED ROTATING
UPDRAFTS WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST
ACROSS THIS REGION GIVEN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
.PETERS.. 03/14/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...
32778992 32039045 32199245 32439405 32889441 33869428
34299342 33939158 33529052
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