MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0405

ACUS11 KWNS 150250
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150250
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-150345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0405
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0950 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA...SRN AR...W-CNTRL MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 111...

VALID 150250Z - 150345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 111 CONTINUES.

AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FEW HOURS...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING THE PRIMARY THREAT
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS UPSCALE CONSOLIDATION OF TSTMS LIKELY
CONTINUES.

AS OF 0245Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ACROSS S-CNTRL/SERN AR INTO
N-CNTRL LA. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SUPERCELL /WITH A HISTORY OF
INTERMITTENT TORNADO REPORTS/...WAS LOCATED ON THE SRN FLANK OF THIS
CLUSTER IN LINCOLN PARISH LA. HERE...BOTH INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADIC THREAT...WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND 1 KM AGL FLOW RECENTLY
STRENGTHENING TO 50 KT /PER LATEST FT POLK LA VAD PROFILER/. FARTHER
N IN SRN AR...ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY SHOWN SIGNS OF CONSOLIDATING
INTO AN MCS. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR INCREASINGLY ELEVATED CONVECTION
AS TSTMS EVOLVE ATOP A COOLER/MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER COMPARED TO
NRN LA.

ACROSS THE SWRN PORTION OF THE WW...PENETRATION OF ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER COMBINED WITH STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL ASCENT BECOMING FOCUSED
TOWARDS THE MS RIVER...SHOULD LEAD TO A LOW PROBABILITY OF ANY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.

.GRAMS.. 03/15/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

31929201 32249297 32449425 33609450 34619440 34669281
34569144 34339086 33919042 33299032 32489046 31759071
31769129

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