MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0481

ACUS11 KWNS 222316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222315
TXZ000-230115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0481
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0615 PM CDT SAT MAR 22 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PERMIAN BASIN AND WRN EDWARDS PLATEAU OF W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 222315Z - 230115Z

23Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SERN
NM SEWD TO JUST N OF THE MAF/ODO METRO AREA THEN INTO NCNTRL TX. A
WEAK LOW WAS OVER THE TRANSPECOS WEST OF FST WITH STRONGEST 3-HRLY
PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE LOW TO STRENGTHEN AS LARGER SCALE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL
ALONG THE BASE OF A DEVELOPING UPR TROUGH. SUBSEQUENTLY...THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD ACCELERATE SWD AS NNELY FLOW ACCELERATES WITH TIME.

LOW-LVL MSTR HAS BEEN INCREASING TO THE S OF THE COLD FRONT ON
PERSISTENT SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. SFC DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO
THE MODEST UPR 30S TO LWR 40S AS FAR NW AS THE ERN PERMIAN BASIN.
HEATING AND STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MUCAPES
GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.

RECENTLY...MID-LVL CONVECTION HAS INCREASED...FAVORING THE DEEPENING
FRONTAL CIRCULATION SINKING SWD NEAR KMAF. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY ROOT INTO THE WEAK SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WITH TIME THIS
EVENING AND GROW STRONGER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT MEAGER BUOYANCY WILL MITIGATE
WIDESPREAD SVR WEATHER. ISOLD MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS AS THEY MOVE ESEWD FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE
WRN EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION LATER TONIGHT. THE STORMS WILL TEND TO
BECOME UNDERCUT BY THE SURGING COLD POOLS/SFC FRONT AND THE MAJORITY
OF THE STORMS WILL REMAIN OR QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO ELEVATED CORES
LIMITING THE THREATS FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS.

ATTM...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT A SVR TSTM WATCH WILL BE NEEDED GIVEN
THE OVERALL MARGINALITY OF THE SVR THREAT.

.RACY.. 03/22/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

32240257 32160181 31860006 31379954 30819979 30620026
30870158 31270232 31960275

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