SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261504
MOZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-261700-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0483
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1004 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 261504Z - 261700Z
STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH 18-20Z. SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS LOW...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
BENEATH A GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW...A RATHER WARM ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER HAS ADVECTED EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/MEXICAN PLATEAU
THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS AIR MASS EXTENDS AS FAR
NORTH/EAST AS THE MISSOURI OZARKS...WHERE STEEPER LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS FOCUSED...AND WEAKER INHIBITION IS
ALLOWING LIFTED PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION.
LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE RETURN...RELATIVE TO WARMTH ALOFT...IS STILL
LIMITED. AND...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS IS RESTRICTING MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE TO VALUES AT OR BELOW 500 J/KG. SOME INCREASE IN
MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACH OF A LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...NOW
SHIFTING THROUGH THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION...COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO A FURTHER INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
BUT...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION
EXPECTED...UNTIL PERHAPS INHIBITION WEAKENS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
PARCELS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AFTER 20-21Z...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW. HOWEVER...WEAK TO MODERATE CLOUD BEARING LAYER SHEAR
COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
NEAR...OR POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IN EXCESS OF...SEVERE LIMITS.
.KERR.. 03/26/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...
38449415 39119377 39189223 38769102 38169024 37269000
36519046 36349235 36719356 37429385 37929432
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