MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0484

ACUS11 KWNS 261848
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261848
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-262115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0484
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN MO INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SE
KS/NE OK/NW AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261848Z - 262115Z

IT STILL SEEMS MORE PROBABLE THAN NOT THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
NOT BECOME SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A WW ISSUANCE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

STEEPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE NOSE OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLATEAU REGION CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
MISSOURI OZARKS/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY REGION. RECENT TIGHTENING OF
THE LOW/MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT SOUTHEAST OF KANSAS CITY THROUGH
THE ROLLA/VICHY AREA HAS BECOME THE FOCUS FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS.
AND...THIS ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL SPREAD ACROSS/EAST OF COLUMBIA
THROUGH THE ST. LOUIS AREA BETWEEN NOW AND 22-23Z.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR CONCERNING POTENTIAL FOR
REDEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. IT COULD BE THAT MID-LEVEL
WARMING BECOMES INHIBITIVE. HOWEVER...THE CONTINUED APPROACH OF THE
WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM PERTURBATION...AND THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET INTO THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH/WEST OF THE
JOPLIN/SPRINGFIELD AREAS...SEEM LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AND...THIS MAY BECOME
SUFFICIENT FOR SURFACE BASED OR NEAR SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE
CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. WEAK MIXED LAYER/MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG WILL PROBABLY BE A LIMITING
FACTOR...BUT AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS
22Z.

.KERR.. 03/26/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...

38959433 39369379 39369232 38829041 38178949 37288956
36969010 37069128 37019226 36569313 36429481 36919584
37549513 37729470

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