SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270939
ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-271115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0485
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0439 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SERN MO INTO SRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 270939Z - 271115Z
ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SERN MO INTO SRN IL. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF AND PRIMARILY N OF A
QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM KY WWD THROUGH FAR SRN
IL TO SRN MO AND INTO SERN KS AND NWRN OK.
REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED AN APPARENT INCREASE IN
TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MO DURING THE
LAST HOUR /SINCE 0830Z/. THIS INCREASE IS LIKELY TIED TO 1) ASCENT
ATTENDANT TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING
EWD ACROSS THE OZARKS/MID MS VALLEY AT THIS TIME...AND 2) WAA ALONG
NOSE OF A 50 KT SWLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO SRN MO. THIS IS SUPPORTING
A RECENT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY
ALONG LEADING EDGE OF EML. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR /30-40 KT/ SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION SUGGEST
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS THIS
MORNING...WITH A FEW STORMS PRODUCING HAIL LOCALLY APPROACHING
AND/OR EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS. OVERALL WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
LIMIT THE HAIL COVERAGE.
.PETERS.. 03/27/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...
38069273 38619306 39139282 38999175 38929021 38808867
38508776 36998897 36489029 36409148 36669229
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