SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272025
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-272200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0488
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CNTRL MO...NERN OK...FAR NWRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 272025Z - 272200Z
AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS PROBABLE COMMENCING
AROUND 22Z FROM CNTRL MO SWWD INTO NERN OK. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED
SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH A
LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THIS REGION WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
20Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW AROUND 40 N JLN
WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ARCING EWD TOWARDS STL...AND A COLD
FRONT DRAPED SWWD TOWARDS OKC /PER REGIONAL RADAR FINE LINE/. RECENT
VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS GROWING CU/TCU JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW
CIRCULATION AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH MIXING HAS WEAKENED
THE CAP /PER MODIFIED NAMKF AND RUC SOUNDINGS/...IT APPEARS FRONTAL
INTERACTIONS WILL BE REQUIRED TO COMPLETELY OVERCOME INHIBITION.
THUS...CONVECTION SHOULD FIRST DEVELOP ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT IN CNTRL MO AND THEN FARTHER SWWD AS COLD FRONT OVERTAKES
ONGOING CU/TCU BANDS.
A SSW-NNE ORIENTED AXIS OF UPPER 50S DEW POINTS SITUATED IN ERN OK
WILL SUPPORT MLCAPES FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH 500
MB WLYS AT 40-50 KT /PER REGIONAL PROFILERS/...COULD LEAD TO INITIAL
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH ATTENDANT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. WITH TIME...TSTM ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY BECOME UNDERCUT BY
OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT SHIFTING S/SEWD AS CYCLONE ACCELERATES EWD THIS
EVENING. AS SUCH...INCREASINGLY ELEVATED TSTMS WITH A MORE MARGINAL
HAIL THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE BY 3-4 HRS AFTER INITIATION.
.GRAMS.. 03/27/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...
37709444 38379393 38769324 38859226 38619176 38159189
37459253 36349388 35479494 35389563 35709587 36249574
36829526
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