MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0504

ACUS11 KWNS 302016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302016
OKZ000-KSZ000-302215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0504
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF S CNTRL KS THRU WRN/CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 302016Z - 302215Z

IT IS NOT COMPLETELY CERTAIN THAT A WATCH WILL BE NEEDED. BUT...
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.

PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE WRAPPING INTO A WEAK SURFACE LOW EAST
NORTHEAST OF GAGE IS BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR DESTABILIZATION THIS
AFTERNOON. RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT INHIBITION IS BECOMING
NEGLIGIBLE FOR STRONGLY HEATED MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS NEAR THE
DRY LINE...WHERE CAPE IS NOW ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG.
AND...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS AN INITIAL WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BETWEEN NOW AND 22-23Z.

CONCERN EXISTS THAT STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING WILL PASS TOO FAR TO
THE NORTH/WEST OF REGION TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. AND...THE SURFACE LOW ALREADY APPEARS
TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF OCCLUDING WITH THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
OVERTAKING THE DRY LINE. BUT...IT APPEARS THAT A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
BEFORE SUNSET. BEST CHANCE MAY BE NEAR THE POINT OF OCCLUSION AS IT
DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD TO THE WEST OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY AREA.

ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN SMALLISH THROUGH
SUNSET...AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A RISK FOR
AT LEAST BRIEF TORNADOES IF STORMS FORM. OTHERWISE... LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.KERR.. 03/30/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...

37059887 37369819 36769723 35919721 35419761 34919790
34679865 35119900 35639899 36549862

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