SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302054
LAZ000-TXZ000-ARZ000-302300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0505
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 302054Z - 302300Z
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES...AND MAY PERSIST ANOTHER
COUPLE OF HOURS. IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL
REMAIN ISOLATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT REMAINS FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...NEAR A 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY 850 JET
CORE ACROSS THE SABINE VALLEY. DESPITE A TREND TOWARD WARMING
ASSOCIATED WITH VEERING OF MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW TOWARD A MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT...INCREASING INHIBITION HAS OBVIOUSLY NOT BECOME
SUFFICIENT TO COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AT LEAST
TO THIS POINT. AS LONG AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST...SIZABLE
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND
PROVIDE A POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY CELLS
MANAGING TO BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THE BULK OF ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL REMAIN BASED JUST ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.
OTHERWISE...THE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME
CONFINED TO SABINE COUNTY TEXAS/SABINE PARISH LOUISIANA AND ADJACENT
AREAS. THIS IS WHERE STRONGEST CONVECTION HAS BECOME
CONCENTRATED...NEAR AN ILL-DEFINED SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
VORTEX.
.KERR.. 03/30/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
30399538 31379605 32339601 33119524 33289409 31709285
30699298 30009399
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