SWODY1
SPC AC 020058
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT TUE APR 01 2008
VALID 020100Z - 021200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..EASTERN PORTIONS OF NY/PA AND NORTHERN NJ INTO THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES...
WITH UPPER TROUGH/DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ADVANCING ACROSS QUEBEC
TONIGHT...SEVERAL DISTINCT BANDS OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION /WITH
LIGHTNING AND HISTORY OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/ CONTINUE TO RACE
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF NY/PA AND NORTHERN
NJ EARLY THIS EVENING. OWING TO CLOUD BREAKS AND AMPLE HEATING...THE
00Z RAOB FROM ALBANY SAMPLED A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
REPRESENTATIVE OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE AROUND 900 J/KG...NOTABLY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS DETERMINISTIC
MODEL GUIDANCE. VERY STRONG WINDS EXIST THROUGH THE LOW TO MID
TROPOSPHERE PER 00Z OBSERVED RAOBS FROM BUFFALO/ALBANY AND REGIONAL
WSR-88D VWP DATA...WITH 100-120 KT FLOW AT 500 MB AND AROUND 50 KT
AT 850 MB. STRONG DYNAMIC/LINEAR FORCING WILL FAVOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/SOME HAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STORMS
QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN NJ INTO
VT/NH/MA/CT.
..SOUTHERN MS/LA/SOUTHEAST TX...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MS/LA
INTO SOUTHEAST TX SHOULD WANE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ALONG WITH
WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE WILL BE UNFAVORABLE FOR SUSTENANCE OF DEEP
CONVECTION...THUS SEVERE PROBABILITIES NO LONGER APPEAR WARRANTED.
..PORTIONS OF WEST/CENTRAL TX OVERNIGHT...
WITH THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE NOW STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL TX PER
REGIONAL PROFILERS/WSR-88D VAD DATA...A MODEST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET /30 KT/ AND ASSOCIATED ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME MAY
RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD 09Z-12Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST/CENTRAL TX. PROVIDED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...A RISK FOR HAIL
WOULD EXIST GIVEN ELEVATED MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AND FAVORABLE
SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER. GIVEN CONSIDERABLE SHORT TERM
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT/LIKLIHOOD OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT PER 18Z NAM/GFS GUIDANCE AND 21Z SREF MEMBERS...THE
ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SCENARIO APPEARS TO NOT WARRANT HAIL
PROBABILITIES PRIOR TO 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.GUYER.. 04/02/2008
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