SWODY1
SPC AC 030053
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT WED APR 02 2008
VALID 030100Z - 031200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. IS BROADLY CONFLUENT...AS
SPLIT BELTS OF POLAR WESTERLIES MERGE INTO A SOMEWHAT MORE UNIFIED
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...FROM THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCIES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS
CONCERNING THE INTERACTIONS AMONG THESE STREAMS...AND THIS IS
CONTRIBUTING TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
..CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE LWR OH/TN VALLEYS...
WITHIN THE SOUTHERNMOST BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES...AN INCREASINGLY
SHEARED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PROGGED TO ACCELERATE INLAND ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU. AS THIS
OCCURS...LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARMING IS PROGGED DOWNSTREAM...TO
THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WHICH PROBABLY WILL
SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH OF WARM FRONT SHIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU REGION. EVEN
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...INHIBITION COULD BECOME A FACTOR ACROSS
MUCH OF OKLAHOMA.
MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT CONCERNING THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF WEAK
IMPULSES EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...IN ADVANCE OF
THE MAIN SYSTEM. THESE COULD PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE ANYWHERE FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BUT...AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A HIGH LEVEL JET SEEMS LIKELY TO FOCUS
DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU DURING THE
03/06-12Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS WHEN/WHERE STRENGTHENING AND STEEPING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SEEM MOST LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASINGLY
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HAIL. BUT...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...MODEST TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
LIMIT THE GENERAL SEVERE THREAT.
..SOUTHEAST STATES...
THE BULK OF SCATTERED ONGOING STORMS APPEAR LARGELY TIED TO
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND PROBABLY WILL
DIMINISH BY 02-03Z. AN EXCEPTION COULD BE ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY
OF LOW/MID LEVEL CONFLUENT BAND NEAR THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA
BORDER...WHICH COULD PERSIST INTO LATE EVENING...ENHANCED BY A WEAK
IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM.
.KERR.. 04/03/2008
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