SWODY1
SPC AC 201237
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2008
VALID 201300Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN VA AND
EASTERN NC...
...VA/NC...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
EASTERN KY...WITH SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE VORTICITY MAXES ROTATING
AROUND LOW. ONE OR MORE OF THESE SMALLER PERTURBATIONS WILL AFFECT
THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS REGIONS TODAY. A PLUME OF RELATIVELY
DEEP MOISTURE IS PRESENT THIS MORNING FROM EASTERN NC/EASTERN VA
INTO PARTS OF MD AND CENTRAL PA. DESPITE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IN
THIS ZONE...RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL HELP RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF UP TO
500 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW BACKED LOW
LEVEL WINDS OVER THIS AREA...PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL/DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLS DESPITE RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY. PRESENT INDICATIONS
REMAIN THAT STRONGER CELLS ALONG AN AXIS FROM DCA-EASTERN NC WILL BE
CAPABLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF
WV AND WESTERN VA/NC BENEATH COLD UPPER LOW. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
IN THIS AREA SUGGEST A RISK OF HAIL IN MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS TODAY.
...DAKOTAS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER PARTS OF MT/WY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD AND AFFECT THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING.
APPROACH OF UPPER SYSTEM WILL HELP ELIMINATE STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION...AND WILL ALSO HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 00Z...WITH
STRONGER CELLS POSING A THREAT OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
..HART/GRAMS.. 04/20/2008
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