SWODY1
SPC AC 191555
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2008
VALID 191630Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SOUTHEAST...
COLD UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SRN IL WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS KY THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. DRY SLOT ROTATING EWD ACROSS TN VALLEY TO S OF LOW
WILL AID IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
BAND OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED FROM CENTRAL
KY SWD INTO GA WILL SPREAD EWD...MOISTENING THE LOW LEVELS IN THEIR
WAKE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AIR MASS WILL THEN DESTABILIZE
AHEAD OF UPPER LOW IN KY EWD TO APPALACHIANS DURING AFTERNOON AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN THE DRY SLOT. WHILE MLCAPE EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY BE AOB 500 J/KG GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE...40-50KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS IN ADVANCE OF
UPPER LOW SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS
EXPECTED TO REACH TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS WITH HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT
GIVEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM AND THE LOWERING
FREEZING LEVELS.
STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A LINEAR MODE BY THIS EVENING
AS THEY SPREAD E OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH A LOW END WIND
DAMAGE THREAT CONTINUING.
..HALES/HURLBUT.. 04/19/2008
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