SWODY1
SPC AC 180054
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT THU APR 17 2008
VALID 180100Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN OK TO PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN
TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
MID-UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS ANCHORED BY
PERSISTENT/CLOSED CYCLONE OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WITH
RIDGING FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND TROUGHING FROM NRN PLAINS SSWWD ACROSS PORTIONS
N-CENTRAL/NWRN MEX. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY AND RAOB/PROFILER DATA OVER CENTRAL NEB...WRN KS AND
TX PANHANDLE. THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO MOVE EWD TO ERN PORTIONS
NEB/KS...WRN/CENTRAL OK AND NWRN/CENTRAL TX BY END OF
PERIOD...BECOMING MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED WITH EMBEDDED LOW OVER KS.
AT SFC...CYCLONE INITIALLY ANALYZED OVER E-CENTRAL KS IS FCST TO
LIFT SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS MKC AREA INTO NWRN MO THROUGH 18/12Z.
MEANWHILE...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN
PORTIONS KS/OK...AND SEWD OVER N-CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND SW TX.
DRYLINE -- INITIALLY ANALYZED FROM CONCHO VALLEY REGION SSWWD
THROUGH DRT AREA -- MAY RETREAT SOMEWHAT WWD ACROSS RIO GRANDE
VALLEY REGION BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY FRONT LATE THIS EVENING.
...SRN PLAINS TO S-CENTRAL TX...
TSTMS ARE BACKBUILDING SWWD GENERALLY ALONG COLD FRONT -- EVEN W OF
DRYLINE AND N OF RIO GRANDE VALLEY...NW DRT. THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDES
A FEW SUPERCELLS...SUCH AS ONE WHICH HAS PRODUCED DAMAGING HAIL AT
MWL AND IS BEING ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL LINE AS IT HEADS TOWARD FTW
AND MID-CITIES AREAS OF METROPLEX. CONVECTIVE MODE IS MORE LINEAR
FARTHER N ACROSS OK...BOTH WITH FRONTAL AND PREFRONTAL BANDS OF
TSTMS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEHIND SFC COLD
FRONT...WHICH MAINLY WOULD BE A MRGL HAIL THREAT. THESE TRENDS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO NRN/CENTRAL TX WITH TIME DURING NEXT FEW
HOURS...THOUGH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN LIKELY PARTICULARLY S
OF RED RIVER. REF WWS 204-205 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR
NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE ON SVR POTENTIAL.
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST BRIEFLY DISCRETE SUPERCELLULAR
STRUCTURES...AND ACCOMPANYING LARGE HAIL...WILL SHIFT SWD WITH
TIME...AS MORE LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE BECOMES DOMINANT OVER
N-CENTRAL TX. STG CAPPING WILL BE OVERCOME BY LIFT INVOF FRONTAL
ZONE...WHILE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
PERSIST -- E.G. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND 50 KT. LINEAR
MODE SHOULD BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED WITH TIME IN THIS AREA AS
WELL...WITH SOME UNDERCUTTING BY COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY DISCRETE/PERSISTENT/SFC-BASED
SUPERCELLS...DOMINANT SVR THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS AS
PRIMARY BAND OF CONVECTION SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS TX.
..EDWARDS.. 04/18/2008
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