SWODY2
SPC AC 150557
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2008
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND BEGIN EMERGING INTO THE PLAINS THIS PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...AN
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT -- TRAILING SWWD FROM A LOW OVER THE NRN
PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION -- WILL SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES WITH TIME. HOWEVER...CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT
OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD HINDER THE SWD PROGRESSION OF THE
TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BOUNDARY LIKELY TO LINGER
OVER KS/OK OVERNIGHT.
..KS AND VICINITY...
MEAGER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN -- OCCURRING BENEATH A FAIRLY
STOUT CAP -- SHOULD HINDER THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR S OF SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS PERIOD. THE
NE-SW FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW IN ITS SWD PROGRESSION ACROSS ERN
KS/WRN OK DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...AS CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. WITH NOCTURNAL SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 70 KT OVER WRN OK...INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THIS REGION WILL RESULT IN AT
LEAST MARGINAL ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION. STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC
LIFT ATOP THE FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD THEREFORE RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS KS THROUGH THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH THE INCREASING
DESTABILIZATION...MID-LEVEL SWLYS AROUND 50 KT WILL RESULT IN SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS. WITH HAIL THEREFORE
POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS...WILL INTRODUCE LOW PROBABILITY
SEVERE THREAT AREA ACROSS KS AND VICINITY.
.GOSS.. 04/15/2008
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