SWODY2
SPC AC 131702
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2008
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE U.S ON
MONDAY AS THE ERN LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE E COAST AND
THE NEXT UPSTREAM DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND OVER THE WRN
STATES. COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE WRN TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM
ERN WA TO CENTRAL ORE AT 12Z MONDAY...AND MOVE EWD REACHING WRN MT
AND SRN ID BY MONDAY EVENING. ELSEWHERE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN THE WAKE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT...EFFECTIVELY NEGATING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN
THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY.
..FAR ERN ORE/SRN AND CENTRAL ID/WRN MT...
DESPITE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MODELS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH BASED TSTMS ALONG THE
COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SURFACE HEATING AND COLD MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED WITH
FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT AND TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW
TSTMS. GIVEN HIGH BASED ACTIVITY...A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL TSTM AND
WIND GUST THREATS.
..WRN ORE...
LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO STEEPEN ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE ORE
COAST LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE COLDEST
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-30 TO -34 C AT 500 MB/ SPREAD OVER THIS
REGION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. MODELS SUGGEST SHOWERS AND A FEW
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
.PETERS.. 04/13/2008
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