SWODY3
SPC AC 150729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2008
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EMERGE INTO/ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
THIS PERIOD...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO SHIFT
SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/EWD TOWARD THE MS VALLEY.
..PARTS OF SWRN MO/SERN KS SSWWD INTO PORTIONS OF S TX...
WHILE THE GENERAL SCENARIO CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AT LEAST A MINIMAL
SEVERE THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND PERHAPS INTO THE
OZARKS DAY 3...MODELS BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AMONGST THE MODELS RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL VARIANCE IN THE LOCATION
OF SURFACE FEATURES -- WITH OVER 200 MILES DIFFERENCE IN FRONTAL
POSITION BY AFTERNOON /CENTRAL OKLAHOMA VERSUS SWRN AR/ BETWEEN THE
SLOWER ECMWF AND THE FASTER NAMKF RUN.
HAVING SAID THAT...MODELS AGREE THAT THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH A FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INVERSION...WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT STORM
DEVELOPMENT TO IMMEDIATELY ON -- OR BEHIND -- THE SURFACE FRONT.
OVERALL DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION ANTICIPATED ATTM COMBINED WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP THE WARM SECTOR SUGGESTS AT LEAST
SOME SEVERE THREAT -- PARTICULARLY WITH ANY SURFACE-BASED STORMS
NEAR THE FRONT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF CAPPING -- WHICH
SHOULD HINDER THE OVERALL NUMBER OF WARM SECTOR STORMS -- AND
SIGNIFICANT QUESTIONS REGARDING LOCATION OF THE SURFACE FEATURES --
WILL INTRODUCE A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT.
THIS AREA WILL BE REFINED IN LATER OUTLOOKS -- POSSIBLY INCLUDING
AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ONCE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
.GOSS/COOK.. 04/15/2008
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