SWODY3
SPC AC 200730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2008
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGIONS EARLY TUESDAY. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. TRAILING PORTION OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND SWWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY THEN INTO SRN OK
OR NRN TX WHERE IT WILL LIKELY STALL AS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILDS OVER THE SRN PLAINS. FARTHER WEST AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE ONTO THE WRN U.S. COAST.
...MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS...
PLUME OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL HAVE ADVECTED EWD OVER
THE MOIST AXIS CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RISING
HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN WAKE OF EXITING
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL KINEMATIC
PROFILES IN MOST OF THE WARM SECTOR. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS
VALLEY REGION AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SW
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS MAY BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO LIKELIHOOD OF
STRONGER CAP...BUT INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER IN THIS
REGION. DESPITE THE MODEST VERTICAL WIND PROFILES...THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. GIVEN THE WEAK KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT AND
POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS FOR INITIATION AND STORM COVERAGE...WILL
INTRODUCE ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
...UPPER GREAT LAKES...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY FROM
ERN IA INTO WI WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ATTENDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. WEAK INSTABILITY AND TENDENCY FOR THE
STRONGER MID-UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN WEST OF WARM SECTOR SUGGEST ANY
SEVERE THREAT IN THIS REGION WILL BE LIMITED.
..DIAL.. 04/20/2008
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