SWODY3
SPC AC 220730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
MID LEVEL JET MAX THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH TX WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE
NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES EARLY THURSDAY. FARTHER
WEST A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES DURING THE
DAY AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL PLAINS. BY THURSDAY
EVENING THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM MN SWWD THROUGH NEB
AND NWRN KS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD OVERNIGHT REACHING THE SRN
PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND FROM THE SRN PLAINS NWD THROUGH KS AND WRN NEB WHERE IT WILL
INTERSECT THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT.
...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH MID-UPPER MS VALLEY...
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE
OF WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY.
STRONG KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL EXIST IN THIS REGION...BUT WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT NE DURING THE DAY. FARTHER WEST...THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL LIKELY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
AND SOUTH OF ADVANCING FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. POTENTIAL FOR
AT LEAST MODEST CAP AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF LEAD IMPULSE WILL
PROBABLY DELAY THUNDERSTORM INITIATION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN
STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP OVER NEB ALONG SEWD ADVANCING FRONT.
MORE ISOLATED STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER SWD ACROSS WRN OR
CNTRL KS AS THE DRYLINE MIXES EWD. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY WITH STORMS THAT CAN INITIATE
ALONG THE DRYLINE. UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE
PLAINS DURING THE EVENING CONTRIBUTING TO AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL
JET AND DEEP FORCING ALONG THE SWD MOVING FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE TO STORMS EVOLVING INTO AN MCS ALONG FRONT WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.
...OK...
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE STRONGLY CAPPED IN OK THAN FARTHER NORTH
AND THE STRONGER UPPER SUPPORT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NW OF THIS REGION
DURING THE DAY. THIS SUGGEST IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO INITIATE
SUSTAINED STORMS ON THE DRYLINE. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS IF
A STORM OR TWO MANAGES TO DEVELOP. DUE TO THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF
THE THREAT...WILL INTRODUCE ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
HOWEVER...IF MODELS BEGIN TO INDICATE UPSTREAM WAVE WILL EJECT INTO
THE PLAINS SOONER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED...THIS AREA MAY NEED TO
BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
..DIAL.. 04/22/2008
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