SWOD48
SPC AC 240912
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0412 AM CDT THU APR 24 2008
VALID 271200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
GFS...ECMWF AND MOST MREF MEMBERS ARE SIMILAR IN EVOLUTION OF UPPER
PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY (DAY 5). SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SWD
INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY (DAY 4) BEFORE
EJECTING EWD THROUGH THE SERN U.S. MONDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES DO EXIST
WITH THE GFS AND MOST MREF MEMBERS BEING FASTER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
BEYOND DAY 6 MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.
...DAY 4...
SURFACE WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFT NEWD
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND SERN STATES. STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY REMAIN POST
FRONTAL. HOWEVER...WITH ITS FASTER SOLUTION THE GFS DEVELOPS A
STRONGER PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEP FLOW OVER THE WARM
SECTOR. THE STRONGER KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTED BY THE GFS
WOULD INDICATE A GREATER SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SERN STATES. GIVEN
LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES AND MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE DETAILS
AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...WILL HOLD OFF ON A RISK AREA FOR NOW.
HOWEVER WILL MENTION THAT PARTS OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED
IN A SEVERE RISK AREA IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
...DAY 5...
STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN POST FRONTAL AREA.
HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR
A THREAT OF MAINLY DAMAGING WIND AS STORMS INTENSIFY ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC.
...DAY 6-8...
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW DAY 6 WITH ONSET OF OFFSHORE FLOW OVER
THE GULF. BEYOND DAY 6 MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE
ECMWF SUGGEST AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY BY DAY 8.
..DIAL.. 04/24/2008
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