SWOD48
SPC AC 300847
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CDT WED APR 30 2008
VALID 031200Z - 081200Z
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW NOW OVER SWRN CANADA AND NWRN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP/PROPAGATE SEWD TO CENTRAL PLAINS DAY-2...THEN FILL AND
PERHAPS BEGIN TO MERGE WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM HUDSON BAY
CYCLONE DAY-3. LARGE SPREAD IN PROGS OF THIS PROCESS - DISCUSSED IN
MORE DETAIL IN DAY-3 OUTLOOK -- CONTINUE IN ENSUING 2-3 DAYS AND
COMPLICATE PREDICTABILITY OF DAY-4/3RD-4TH SVR POTENTIAL INVOF
TRAILING PORTION OF SFC FRONTAL ZONE -- OVER SERN CONUS.
MEANWHILE...STG SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION NOW INVOF BERING STRAIT IS
FCST TO PIVOT CYCLONICALLY AROUND LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER GULF OF
AK. MREF MEMBERS...UKMET...ECMWF AND OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL MODELS
ALL INDICATE THAT THIS PERTURBATION THEN SHOULD DIG SEWD TO PORTIONS
W-CENTRAL/SWRN CONUS BY DAY-6/5TH-6TH. CONSIDERING COMPLEX
INTERACTION OF THOSE SYSTEMS OVER NERN PACIFIC...AS WELL AS LARGE
UNCERTAINTIES DOWNSTREAM OVER ERN NORTH AMERICA...SUCH TIGHT
CLUSTERING ABOUT MODEL CONSENSUS IS REMARKABLE. SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR MAY RETURN TO PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS
TO SUPPORT SVR POTENTIAL DAY-7/6TH-7TH...AS THIS FEATURE PROCEEDS
EWD. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT UNCERTAINTIES EXIST REGARDING SHAPE AND
DEPTH OF SWRN UPPER TROUGH/LOW...AND ITS IMPACT ON SFC PATTERN...TO
PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.
..EDWARDS.. 04/30/2008
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