SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042139
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-042245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0558
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0439 PM CDT FRI APR 04 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SC INTO SRN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 042139Z - 042245Z
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE E OF WW 165
THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.
TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOW
WEDGE FRONT STEADILY LIFTING NWD/NWWD...EXTENDING FROM INTERSECTION
WITH COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY W OF AHN ENEWD ACROSS NRN SC INTO
CNTRL NC AS OF 21Z. MOREOVER...SURFACE WINDS ACROSS SC HAVE BACKED
TO MORE SLY OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS WITH A CONCENTRATED AREA OF
PRESSURE FALLS ALONG AND S OF BAROCLINIC ZONE...SUGGESTING THAT
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS INCREASING ACROSS AREA.
AIR MASS S OF WEDGE FRONT HAS WARMED TO AROUND 80F AT MANY LOCATIONS
AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...ENVIRONMENT HAS
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.
DEEPENING CUMULUS CONVECTION/EARLY TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER WRN SC /N
OF AGS/ SUGGESTS THAT ANY RESIDUAL CAPPING IS BEING ERODED WITH
ADDITIONAL TSTMS POSSIBLE BY 05/00Z. THIS PROCESS MAY BE HASTENED
BY MOIST AND WARM THERMAL ADVECTIONS ALONG SWLY LLJ WHICH IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS.
SHOULD TSTMS DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE INTENSIFYING LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
WHILE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY MORE
INTENSE...SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS.
.MEAD.. 04/04/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...
34368225 34938181 35408104 35388022 35137978 34597942
33877966 33258005 32888104 32878174 33218223
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