SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072352
OKZ000-TXZ000-080145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0581
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 PM CDT MON APR 07 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NW TX INTO CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 169...
VALID 072352Z - 080145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 169 CONTINUES.
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL WW
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF WW.
WITH SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE RETURN YET TO BECOME FULLY
ESTABLISHED...COUPLED WITH THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARMING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
HAS BEEN SLOWED ALONG DRY LINE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS REGION.
HOWEVER...UPPER FLOW IS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING INCREASINGLY
DIFLUENT AND DIVERGENT...AND THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BETWEEN NOW AND 02-03Z. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME COINCIDENT WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
WARM ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A 40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET.
AND...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR/ MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
OF 1000-2000 J/KG...STORM DEVELOPMENT NOW OCCURRING NORTH OF
OKLAHOMA CITY...AND ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...MAY GROW INTO AN EXPANDING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER LATER THIS
EVENING. UNTIL THEN...THE RISK FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS
CONTINUES...ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL/LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES.
.KERR.. 04/07/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...
34339941 34899935 35419948 36049946 36599879 36679693
36619635 36349539 35789528 34639592 33969692 33479893
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