MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0582

ACUS11 KWNS 080212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080212
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-080315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0582
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0912 PM CDT MON APR 07 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NW TX INTO CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 169...

VALID 080212Z - 080315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 169 CONTINUES.

NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WW MAY BE REPLACED WITH A NEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH BY 03Z...OR ADDED TO WW 170. TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT NORTH
OF WW 170...BUT THE NEED FOR A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THE PRESENT
TIME.

SURFACE WARM FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR WEST OF
OKLAHOMA CITY APPEARS THE MOST PROBABLE FOCUS FOR ANY VIGOROUS NEW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOW AND 03-05Z. RUC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION...
WHERE FORCING ON THE NOSE OF A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AS A BROAD/LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSES EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS EVENING. THERE IS
INCREASING CONCERN THAT WARMING AROUND 700 MB COULD SUPPRESS
DEVELOPMENT EVEN ACROSS THIS REGION. AND...IF THIS OCCURS...MORE
PROMINENT NEW CONVECTION MAY END UP FORMING FARTHER IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO/OR NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER...WHERE INSTABILITY
PROBABLY WILL ONLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF A MORE MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL
THREAT.

OTHERWISE...SOUTH OF WARM FRONT...LOSS OF HEATING ALONG THE DRY LINE
IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW STORMS. AND
..ACTIVITY DEVELOPING EAST OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH.

.KERR.. 04/08/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...

35729952 36239934 37419930 37829829 37819678 37579513
36719469 35709508 35049658 33749800 33339846 33349945
33849959 34769987

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