MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0588

ACUS11 KWNS 082203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082203
MOZ000-ILZ000-082300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0588
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0503 PM CDT TUE APR 08 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...MO OZARKS...SWRN AND WRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 082203Z - 082300Z

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY MAY INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR
TWO. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED AS STORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS.

CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT HAS ONLY RECENTLY BECOME MORE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER IMPULSE
IMPINGING ON THE MID MS VALLEY REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL
DRYSLOT MOVING ACROSS MO ATTM. THE LACK OF OBSERVED LIGHTNING WITH
THE BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT SUGGESTS ONLY WEAK
UPDRAFTS/STRENGTHENING UPPER ASCENT ARE SUSTAINING THIS SHALLOW
CONVECTION. MARGINAL INSOLATION DOWNSTREAM OF THE DEVELOPING
CONVECTION WILL ACT TO MARGINALLY STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS
MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN FROM
THE S...SURFACE DEWPTS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
DEGREES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL ACT TO AID IN
LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION. AS A RESULT...ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY
/200-700 J/KG MUCAPE/ IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE
DECREASING AROUND SUNSET.

TRENDS IN THE ANW PROFILER WITHIN THE PAST FEW HRS HAVE SHOWN AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FLOW /60 KTS AOA 3KM/...SUGGESTING AN
ORGANIZED STORM THREAT MAY EVOLVE IF UPDRAFTS CAN BE SUSTAINED. IF
STORMS CAN PERSIST...THEN THEY MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF MAINLY ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.SMITH.. 04/08/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

37499228 38209197 38669179 39039171 39369152 39569126
39649066 39529019 39108983 38218976 37438985 36839021
36589079 36579170 36549215 36559261 36699275 36959261

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