SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092212
TXZ000-OKZ000-092315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0604
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0512 PM CDT WED APR 09 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL INTO N-CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 178...
VALID 092212Z - 092315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 178 CONTINUES.
THROUGH 23Z...THE GREATEST SUPERCELL AND INHERENT HAIL AND TORNADO
THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS STEPHENS AND PALO PINTO COUNTIES TX.
ADDITIONAL STORM INITIATION MAY ALSO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS ALONG DRYLINE FROM NEAR MAF SWD TO 6R6.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED WARM FRONT CONTINUING TO LIFT NWD
THROUGH N-CNTRL TX WITH THE GREATEST DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING NEAR
AND NW OF THE MWL AREA. AS OF 2145Z...THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING OVER SHACKELFORD COUNTY WHERE A RECENT
STORM MERGER HAS OCCURRED...RESULTING IN AN INTENSE SUPERCELL. THIS
STORM IS SITUATED ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH A MOTION OF 255/35 KT.
EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT MOTION TAKES THIS STORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
STEPHENS AND PALO PINTO COUNTIES...NEAR OR N OF MWL BETWEEN
2300-2330Z.
RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE FAVORABLE
FOR THE SUSTENANCE OF THIS STORM WITH THE INFLUX OF A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER AND STEEP LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500
J/KG. MOREOVER...BOTH LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAIN QUITE STRONG
AND SUPPORT OF LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION TO
VERY LARGE HAIL...THIS STORM WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES.
FARTHER TO THE SW...ADDITIONAL STORM OVER MITCHELL AND STERLING
COUNTIES HAS RECENTLY SPLIT AND APPEARS STILL TO BE TRYING TO
ORGANIZE. THIS STORM TOO IS SITUATED ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE...BUT MORE NLY WIND COMPONENT AT SWEETWATER TX SUGGESTS THAT
BOUNDARY MAY SAG SWD...TEMPORARILY UNDERCUTTING ONGOING TSTM
DEVELOPMENT.
FINALLY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE FROM S OF MAF TO 6R6 WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS BECOME HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED. TSTMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT
1 TO 2 HOURS WITH AN INITIAL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. ANY MORE DISCRETE STORMS THAT CAN PERSIST EWD/NEWD INTO THE
RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL HAVE AN INCREASED THREAT OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES.
.MEAD.. 04/09/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
33929727 31119732 30219929 30170197 31030260 31260246
31250194 32620185 33090112 33589979 34059779
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