SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092359
TXZ000-100100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0607
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 PM CDT WED APR 09 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN INTO N-CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 178...
VALID 092359Z - 100100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 178 CONTINUES.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
A REPLACEMENT TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED PRIOR TO 01Z.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SERN
NM WITH AN ATTENDANT LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING TO JUST S
OF MAF AND THEN MORE NEWD TO N OF MWL AND INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY
W OF GYI. A DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM INTERSECTION WITH FRONT S OF MAF
TO W OF 6R6.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ABOVE-MENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP ENEWD INTO W-CNTRL TX BY 10/03Z AND THEN MORE NWD INTO NWRN
TX BY 10/06Z IN RESPONSE TO NEGATIVELY-TILTED MIDLEVEL TROUGH
EJECTING ENEWD ACROSS NM INTO WRN TX. ATTENDANT LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD LIFT NWD AS WARM FRONT WHILE DRYLINE SURGES
EWD. AS THIS OCCURS...TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALONG
WARM FRONT AND DRYLINE WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS SYSTEM
WARM SECTOR...A CONTINUED THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING
STRUCTURES WILL EXIST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
.MEAD.. 04/09/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
31880196 32590110 33170009 33429916 33819787 33349758
32529766 31799772 31199819 30610022 30330093 30360139
30960181
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