SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170337
KSZ000-170400-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0648
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1037 PM CDT WED APR 16 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 170337Z - 170400Z
TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL THROUGH CENTRAL/SRN KS. STRONGER
CORES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL APPROACHING OR LOCALLY
EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS...WITH AN ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS.
LATE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING EWD INTO THE WRN TX PANHANDLE...WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT
MOVING NWD THROUGH ERN OK PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS. AREA
WSR-88D VADS AND WIND PROFILERS INDICATED NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN SLY
LLJ WITH 45-50 JET EXTENDING NWD THROUGH WRN OK TO SWRN/SOUTH
CENTRAL KS AND INTERSECTING WARM FRONT. REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING
DATA INDICATED RECENT INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY...PRIMARILY ELEVATED
ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPED IN
THE VICINITY OF MEDICINE LODGE KS...WITH THIS STORM LIKELY SURFACE
BASED GIVEN ITS LOCATION S OF WARM FRONT.
MOIST/WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME ALONG NOSE OF LLJ AND ASCENT
BEGINNING TO SPREAD ENEWD AHEAD OF FOUR CORNERS UPPER TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. MUCAPES RANGING FROM
500-1200 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
.PETERS.. 04/17/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC...GLD...
37249865 37080009 37540072 38520061 39040013 39109838
39059728 38439700 37669742 37479782
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