SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170626
KSZ000-170800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0649
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0126 AM CDT THU APR 17 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 203...
VALID 170626Z - 170800Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 203
CONTINUES.
ZONE OF STRONG LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...NEAR THE NOSE
OF A 50+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...TO THE NORTHEAST OF A TEXAS
PANHANDLE SURFACE LOW...IS THE FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS ONGOING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STILL LIMITED...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT DRIER/MORE STABLE STORM
RELATIVE INFLOW WILL TEND TO WEAKEN STORMS AS THEY DEVELOP
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT...AIDED BY 30-40 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW. HOWEVER... MODELS SUGGEST
LIFT WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS...THROUGH AT LEAST
09-10Z...BEFORE FORCING ACROSS THIS REGION BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET GRADUALLY VEERS AND WEAKENS.
UNTIL THEN...MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG IN THE PRESENCE OF
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. AND...DESPITE ELEVATED STORM
BASES...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...EVEN TO THE COOL SIDE OF SURFACE
FRONT...APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A CONTINUING RISK FOR LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.
.KERR.. 04/17/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
37190101 37850132 38470101 38989960 39449793 39529658
39279579 38389617 37579714 37199835 37049968 37030070
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment