SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180113
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-180145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0655
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0813 PM CDT THU APR 17 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN INTO NERN TX/FAR SERN OK/FAR SWRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 180113Z - 180145Z
NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF E THROUGH NE TX INTO THE
ARKLATEX REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED AN ONGOING LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL TX /COOKE COUNTY/ SWWD ALONG THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT TO BROWN COUNTY. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS IS NOT
AS UNSTABLE TO THE EAST OF WW 204...STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE NWD MOISTURE ADVECTION WHICH MAY COMPENSATE FOR THE
WEAKER OVERALL INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT
ALONG THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SRN PLAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS IT PROGRESSES ESEWD. ALTHOUGH A FEW
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM ACROSS NRN TX
WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS CONTINUE TO CROSS THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...PRIND SUGGEST A QUASI-LINEAR STRUCTURES SHOULD BECOME THE
PRIMARY MODE AS SHEAR VECTORS BECOME ORIENTED MORE PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT LATER THIS EVENING.
..PETERS.. 04/18/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...
34089330 32459404 30669510 30659621 31049727 32779632
33919595 34639543 34489411
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