SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251915
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-252045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0730
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO...NWRN AR...SERN OK...NERN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 251915Z - 252045Z
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EACH ARE FCST TO SLOWLY INCREASE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTN. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN LINE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SW MO AND STRETCHING SWWD INTO SERN OK.
12Z RAOBS SHOW RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS /8-9 DEG C AT 700 MB/
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTING THE REGION IS STILL LARGELY CAPPED AS SUGGESTED
BY THE UNDULATING APPEARANCE OF A WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK OVER THE
NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...18Z SHV RAOB DOES SUGGEST THE
CAP IS WEAKENING ACROSS THE GENERAL AREA. STORM COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE AS THE CAP WEAKENS FURTHER AND AS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
CLOSER TO THE REGION.
THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO LARGELY REMAIN
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT 30-40 KTS EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD AID
IN STORM ORGANIZATION. MODEST INCREASES IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SURFACE HEATING WILL YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY /1000 - 2000 J/KG/.
ATTM...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS
AS STORMS BEGIN TO INTENSIFY.
..SMITH.. 04/25/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
35089496 35519467 36379414 37929309 38309281 38209166
37809141 37159162 35909243 35239296 32499538 32299598
32339708 33399628 34119608
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