SWODY1
SPC AC 130606
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN IL/SRN IA/MO/SERN KS
SWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN TX TO THE RIO GRANDE...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH -- COMPRISED OF A NRN AND A SRN STREAM
SHORT-WAVE FEATURE -- WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD WITH TIME...WHILE
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS AND SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS WITH TIME. A
WIDE SWATH OF MODERATELY-STRONG SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PRECEDE THE
UPPER TROUGH...ATOP SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ADVECTING MOISTURE NWD. AS A
RESULT...A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL EVOLVE...LIKELY RESULTING IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SEVERE EVENT THIS PERIOD.
...WRN IL/MO AND VICINITY SSWWD INTO TX...
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF MO/AR AND VICINITY...WITHIN BROAD ZONE OF
WARM ADVECTION. AS DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING
COMBINE TO ALLOW AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WITH TIME...A FEW
STRONGER/LOCALLY-SEVERE STORMS MAY EVOLVE -- CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
GREATER SEVERE THREAT WILL EVOLVE LATER IN THE DAY AS CAP WEAKENS
INVOF SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT...INITIALLY FROM SERN KS AND INTO
CENTRAL OK. AS BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENS...DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION FROM SERN KS/SWRN MO
SWD. CAP SHOULD HOLD A BIT LONGER FURTHER S...BUT EXPECT ADDITIONAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT SWD ACROSS TX ALONG THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON.
ALONG WITH FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...FLOW EXPECTED TO VEER/INCREASE
WITH HEIGHT WILL YIELD SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS...THE THREAT FOR
TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST. GREATEST THREAT SHOULD RESIDE FROM SWRN
MO ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF OK AND WRN AR INTO N TX...WHERE MOST
FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL SHIFT EWD/SEWD...AS COLD FRONT PROGRESSES.
WHILE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT...SOME SEVERE THREAT
WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD -- PARTICULARLY
ACROSS ERN TX AND INTO AR WHERE GREATEST INSTABILITY SHOULD LINGER.
..GOSS.. 05/13/2008
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