Sunday, May 4, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 050050
SWODY1
SPC AC 050047

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2008

VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...COASTAL CAROLINAS...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS IN VICINITY OF STALLED COLD FRONT/RESIDUAL
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/DIMINISHING SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY...AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT REFLECTED IN
00Z OBSERVED RAOBS...SUGGEST LOW HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES ARE NO
LONGER WARRANTED.

...TX INTO WESTERN KS...
SATELLITE/REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY REFLECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRANSPECOS REGION IN FAR SOUTHWEST TX.
ALTHOUGH AIDED BY A MID LEVEL IMPULSE NEARING THE BIG BEND
REGION...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASING TREND
IN THESE ONGOING STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FARTHER
EAST...ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL /AND PERHAPS EVEN NORTH/ TX OVERNIGHT OWING TO SUFFICIENT
MID LEVEL ASCENT/MOISTENING. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

FARTHER NORTH ACROSS WESTERN KS LATE TONIGHT...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TOWARD 09Z-12Z AMIDST A MODEST 35-40 KT
LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT/ELEVATED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT REGIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF AS
MUCH AS 750 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE...HOWEVER THE OVERALL RISK FOR
SEVERE HAIL APPEARS MINIMAL.

...NORTHERN/CENTRAL CA...
BENEATH THE COLD MID LEVEL LOW /-20 TO -25 C AT 500 MB/...A FEW
STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF SOME HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CENTRAL SIERRAS INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEY AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

..GUYER.. 05/05/2008

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