SWODY1
SPC AC 211240
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2008
VALID 211300Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN GA/FAR NRN FL...
...CENTRAL INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS...
SURFACE LOW WILL CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OVER
NRN CO THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF LARGE UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL BRING FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS
FROM WRN TX INTO MT. WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE...DEEP SELY UPSLOPE WILL DEVELOP EAST OF LEE TROUGH EXPECTED
TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM ERN MT/WY INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS NEAR
THE NM/TX BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE FEED WILL REMAIN
SUBSTANDARD FOR LATE MAY AS PRIMARY GULF MOISTURE REMAINS SHUNTED
BEHIND SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN TX AND
THE SRN GULF COAST STATES. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING/MIXING AND
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD AUGMENT LARGE ASCENT AND INCREASE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON FROM
FAR NRN NM INTO WY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE
ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION...ALTHOUGH HIGH BASES SHOULD FAVOR LP STORMS
WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MOST LIKELY
REGION FOR MORE INTENSE CONVECTION WILL BE FROM NERN CO INTO ERN WY
WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGEST UPSLOPE FLOW AND 40+ SFC DEW POINTS.
CAPPING WILL LIKELY INHIBIT STORMS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS PORTION
OF DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH. HOWEVER AS WRN END OF STALLED SURFACE FRONT
OVER CENTRAL TX ERODES...NWRN EXTENT OF RICHER GULF MOISTURE SHOULD
SPREAD INTO PARTS OF FAR WRN OK/ERN TX PANHANDLE BY THE EARLY
EVENING. THIS SHOULD ACT TO WEAKEN CAP. GIVEN VERY STRONG SHEAR
UNDER STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ...ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
PRESENCE OF LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS...WILL KEEP CONDITIONAL LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES INTO THIS PART OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ATTM
SINCE ANY STORM WHICH CAN GO WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE.
...SRN GA/FAR NRN FL TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES REMAINS OVER THIS REGION SOUTH OF DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. AND INVOF SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER FAR SRN GA INTO SRN AL TODAY. 12Z SOUNDING FROM TLH
INDICATE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM WITH STRONG WLY FLOW
ALOFT SUPPORTING 40-45 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. EML IN PLACE SHOULD CAP
THE REGION FOR A SHORT WHILE...ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY
ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE BREACHED DURING THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS WOULD FAVOR SPLITTING
SUPERCELLS...WITH POSSIBILITY OF SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS AS STORMS
MOTIONS PARALLEL STALLING SURFACE FRONT.
...CENTRAL PLAINS/MO RIVER VALLEY...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG NOSE OF STRONG H85 JET WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THIS REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR ALONG ERN EDGE OF VERY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATE PLUME AND SHOULD SUPPORT HAIL...SOME OF WHICH MAY BRIEFLY
BE SEVERE AS ACTIVITY INCREASES AND DEVELOPS ENEWD OVERNIGHT.
..EVANS/SMITH.. 05/21/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment