SWODY2
SPC AC 050552
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT MON MAY 05 2008
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE UPR
MS VLY/CORN BELT SWWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
...KS SWD INTO TX...
UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD FROM THE SWRN STATES INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAKLY PHASING WITH THE POLAR
STREAM ALONG THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. A DRYLINE WILL LIKELY MIX
EWD INTO PARTS OF WRN KS...TX PNHDL AND THE ERN TRANSPECOS BY
MID-AFTN TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL SURGE BACK W DURING THE EVENING
AWAITING THE STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING TO SPREAD QUICKLY ENEWD
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE ACROSS TX
NWD INTO KS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THOUGH PERSISTENT
LOW-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND MS VLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
POCKETS OF LOCALLY LWR DEW POINTS/MIXING. NONETHELESS...AIR MASS
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE SHOULD HEAT CONSIDERABLY DURING THE AFTN.
COMBINATION OF LARGER SCALE FORCING EDGING EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING DRYLINE CIRCULATION AND TSTM
INITIATION FROM SWRN KS SWD INTO SWRN TX BY LATE AFTN. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VECTORS /MAGNITUDE AOA 45 KTS/ WILL BACK RAPIDLY AFTER
DARK...BUT MAINTAIN A NORMAL COMPONENT TO THE DRYLINE SUGGESTING
POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE STORMS THROUGH DARK WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. THEN...AS STRONGER FORCING FOR
ASCENT SPREADS EWD OVERNIGHT...FLOW WILL BACK THROUGH A DEEP LAYER
AND RESULT IN A SQUALL LINE SCENARIO...STARTING IN W TX AFTER 06Z.
THIS ENTITY PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG/DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL PROBABLY
REACH AT LEAST THE ERN TX PNHDL/LOW ROLLING PLAINS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
...MID-MO VLY EWD TO THE CNTRL GRTLKS REGION...
A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE POLAR WLYS WILL TRAVEL
FROM THE NRN ROCKIES EARLY ON TUESDAY TO THE UPR MS VLY BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL REINFORCE A FRONT WITH A PROGGED SEWD
TRANSLATION INTO PARTS OF THE UPR MS VLY SWWD INTO NEB TUESDAY
AFTN/NIGHT. 00Z GFS/NAM AND LATEST ECMWF VARY ON BOUNDARY PLACEMENT
AND UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS ON THE LATITUDINAL LOCATION OF SVR
PROBABILITIES.
MORNING ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD FROM
ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY INTO THE CNTRL GRTLKS REGION ALONG SWLY BRANCH
OF THE LLJ. IF SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN OCCUR...THE UPR MS VLY
ACTIVITY MAY BLOSSOM INTO STRONGER STORMS DURING THE AFTN ALONG A
WEAK BOUNDARY. ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
UPSTREAM IN WAKE OF MORNING ACTIVITY...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN ALONG/S OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH MLCAPES AROUND
1500 J/KG FROM PARTS OF SRN MN/SWRN WI WWD INTO NEB. AS SRN
PERIPHERY OF THE INCOMING MID-LEVEL WAVE BRUSHES THIS
INSTABILITY...TSTMS WILL LIKELY ERUPT. OTHER ISOLD STORMS MAY
DEVELOP INVOF SD BLACK HILLS INTO NWRN NEB WHERE FLOW TURNS UPSLOPE
AMIDST STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.
0-6KM SHEAR OF 45 KTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STORM ORGANIZATION AND
LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ESEWD OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE CORN BELT WITH AT
LEAST ISOLD SVR THREATS.
..RACY.. 05/05/2008
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