SWODY2
SPC AC 041729
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2008
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF KS/NEB...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE MID/UPPER VORTEX IS FORECAST TO PERSIST INVOF NRN ONTARIO/SRN
HUDSON BAY THIS PERIOD...WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS THE
NERN U.S. INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NRN BAJA/AZ/NWRN MEXICO.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE ERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY...IN THE WAKE OF THE ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH.
WEAK CYCLOGENESIS/LEE TROUGHING IS FORECAST OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...WITH SLY/SELY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WARM SECTOR.
...MID MO VALLEY/NEB SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
MODEST MOISTURE RETURN ON SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
THE PLAINS...WITH 500 TO 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE FORECAST BY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG SWD
ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
WHILE SURFACE PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...PERSISTENT SLYS/SELYS AT
LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE-INDUCED UVV ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...AND THEN A BROADER AREA OF LIFT OVERNIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES IN CONJUNCTION WITH NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. WHILE CAPPING SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WARM ADVECTION/UPSLOPE COMBINED WITH THE
APPROACH OF SEVERAL WEAK FEATURES ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED STORMS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. VEERING FLOW
WITH HEIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH MAIN
THREATS LIKELY TO BE LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS.
WHILE POCKETS OF MORE CONCENTRATED SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
OCCUR...IT REMAINS DIFFICULT ATTM TO NARROW DOWN SPECIFIC AREAS. IT
APPEARS ATTM THAT ONE SUCH POCKET OF MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY MAY
OCCUR ACROSS KS AND THEN SPREADING NEWD INTO THE EVENING INTO PARTS
OF SRN NEB...AS ONGOING STORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EXPAND/INCREASE
IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET. STORMS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS N CENTRAL KS/S CENTRAL AND SERN
NEB -- ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.
..GOSS.. 05/04/2008
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