DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 210733
SWODY3
SPC AC 210730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2008

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE WRN UPPER LOW/TROUGH TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY
WWD...WHILE THE ERN SYSTEM CONTINUES SLOWLY EWD. IN
BETWEEN...EXPECT WEAK HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE UPPER
RIDGE EXPANDS BOTH EWD AND WWD BETWEEN THE DIVERGING ERN AND WRN
TROUGHS.

AT THE SURFACE...A PERSISTENT FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND SEWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...E OF A LOW WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS NEB AND PARTS OF KS/WRN MO/OK/N TX...
VERY SIMILAR SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED DAY 3 AS THAT FORECAST FOR
DAY 2...THOUGH OVERALL COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT MAY BE A JUST A BIT
LOWER AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NONETHELESS...VERY MOIST/MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR -- PARTICULARLY INVOF THE DRYLINE AND
ALONG AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE NW-SE SURFACE FRONT -- TO YIELD A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. WITH SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED.
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NRN KS AND INTO S CENTRAL NEB WHERE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BE SITUATION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THREAT SHOULD SHIFT GRADUALLY TO THE N OVERNIGHT...AS ELEVATED
STORMS N OF THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY POSE A HAIL THREAT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

...THE S CENTRAL CONUS...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS FORECAST ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE S CENTRAL
U.S. INVOF LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY. WHILE RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES ABOVE A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL AGAIN RESULT IN
MODERATE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...FAIRLY WEAK WIND FIELD IN GENERAL
SUGGESTS MAINLY ISOLATED/PULSE-TYPE SEVERE THREAT...DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET.

..GOSS.. 05/21/2008

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