SWODY3
SPC AC 270717
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ESEWD
INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER FLOW FIELD IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY THIS PERIOD...AS
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EJECTING EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES/ATOP THE CENTRAL
U.S. RIDGE WILL LEAD TO A FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE WITH TIME.
AS THIS TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE PERIOD...A SURFACE LEE TROUGH/LOW WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS. OVERNIGHT...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD TOWARD SRN MN...WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO BEGIN MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.
...NRN HIGH PLAINS ESEWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS SLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW MODERATE DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...THOUGH CAPPING SHOULD HINDER
STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS HEATING/MIXING COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH COMBINE TO WEAKEN THE CAP. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR OVER THE HIGH PLAINS INVOF SERN MT/ERN WY/WRN SD...AND THEN
SPREAD EWD WITH TIME. WITH SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FORECAST
BENEATH 40 TO 50 KT MID-LEVEL SWLYS...SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS.
GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES/MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED...LARGE HAIL
IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS.
LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE
EVENING. ALONG WITH SUSTAINING/INCREASING ESEWD-MOVING
STORMS...RESULTING INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY ALSO SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AS STORMS SPREAD ESEWD OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE THREAT FOR HAIL/WIND SHOULD CONTINUE AS STORMS MOVE
ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
..GOSS.. 05/27/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment