SWODY3
SPC AC 300720
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS WWD
INTO CNTRL GULF STATES...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY THREE PERIOD...FEATURING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN
APPALACHIANS AND THE MIDDLE/SERN ATLANTIC COASTS. UPSTREAM...A
SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSES ORIGINATING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST ARE FORECAST TO CREST CNTRL U.S. RIDGE WHILE MOVING NEWD/EWD
INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH EAST COAST SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES WITH THE WRN
EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINING MORE QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE
OZARK PLATEAU/CNTRL PLAINS TO STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION.
...SERN STATES...
BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE MOIST AHEAD OF SURFACE
FRONT WITH AIR MASS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FORCING ALONG FRONT IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEEPER ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON
FROM THE CAROLINAS WWD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF GA/AL/MS. MODESTLY
STRONG...UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER COUPLED
WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW ORGANIZED
TSTM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.
...GREAT PLAINS...
PREVAILING WLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A WELL-DEFINED EML AND
RESULTANT CAP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE DAY THREE
PERIOD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST AND MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ALONG
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU WWD INTO KS/OK. AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO BE DRAWN NWD INTO THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE E OF INTENSIFYING LEE TROUGH.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN DIURNAL STORM INITIATION IS INVOF OF LEE
TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AS ABOVE-MENTIONED IMPULSES
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LOWERING OF HEIGHTS ACROSS REGION. FORECAST
SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
MAINLY HAIL AND HIGH WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT.
SEVERE THREAT BECOMES MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN/CONDITIONAL SWD ALONG LEE
TROUGH AND EWD/SEWD ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OWING TO THE
PRESENCE OF THE STRONG CAP. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL
DATA SETS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED...DIURNAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED... VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN SUPPORTIVE OF UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS
WHICH WOULD MOVE EWD/SEWD ALONG COOL SIDE OF LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE.
..MEAD.. 05/30/2008
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