SWODY3
SPC AC 310725
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE MID MO VALLEY EWD/SEWD
INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE...BUT DE-AMPLIFYING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST
OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE DAY THREE PERIOD. THE PRIMARY FEATURES
OF INTEREST ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND
UPSTREAM LOW WHICH WILL GRADUALLY OPEN WHILE SHIFTING EWD FROM THE
PACIFIC NW INTO NRN ROCKIES.
A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE BEING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE
CNTRL PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. AS THIS
OCCURS...A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
EWD/SEWD FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...INTERSECTING RETREATING WARM
FRONT OVER THE MID MO VALLEY.
...MID MO VALLEY EWD/SEWD INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS...
EWD MIGRATION OF LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL
MAINTAIN A GRADUALLY VEERING LLJ WHICH WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE
MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY. THIS PROCESS
WILL OCCUR BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING
EWD WITH RAPID AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING ALONG AND N/NE OF
RETREATING WARM FRONT.
CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING N OF WARM
FRONT WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WHILE MOVING/DEVELOPING EWD/NEWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY OF THE MORE INTENSE
STORMS.
THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SURFACE-BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP
INVOF WARM FRONT WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY AND RATHER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. DETAILS AND
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO STILL REMAIN UNCLEAR/LOW. HOWEVER...
SHOULD IT UNFOLD...THE THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.
...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP MONDAY OVER WRN/CNTRL MT WITHIN STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT IN ADVANCE OF OPENING UPPER LOW. VERTICAL
SHEAR IS FORECAST THE REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...BUT THE PRESENCE OF
THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL IN THE MORE INTENSE STORMS.
...SERN STATES...
A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL EXIST AHEAD OF
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING SWD. THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH MODEST DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW INTENSE STORM CLUSTERS
WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL.
..MEAD.. 05/31/2008
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