DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 270900
SWOD48
SPC AC 270900

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

VALID 301200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
DETERMINISTIC MID-RANGE MODELS /GFS AND ECMWF/ REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THROUGH ROUGHLY DAY 5 /SAT. MAY 31/...AND THEN BEGIN
EXHIBITING DISAGREEMENT BY DAY 6 /SUN. JUN. 1/. WHILE BOTH DEPICT A
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN CONUS DAY 6 AND THEN SHIFTING SLOWLY
EWD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...MODELS DISAGREE IN LOCATION OF
AN UPSTREAM RIDGE -- AND A SECOND TROUGH STILL FURTHER UPSTREAM.
WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT BEYOND DAY 5 LIKELY TO DEPEND UPON THE
RESPECTIVE POSITIONS OF THE UPSTREAM RIDGE AND TROUGH...WILL NOT
HIGHLIGHT ANY SEVERE AREAS BEYOND DAY 5.

IN THE SHORTER TERM...MODELS AGREE THAT A SERIES OF SHORT-WAVE
FEATURES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DAY
4 /FRI. MAY 30/...AND THEN INTO THE NORTHEAST DAY 5 RESULTING IN
LARGER-SCALE TROUGHING OVER THE ERN U.S./ERN CANADA.

AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DAY 4 IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER SHORT-WAVE FEATURES...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SEWD ACROSS MID MO/MID AND UPPER MS VALLEYS DURING THE
DAY...AND INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIRMASS EXPECTED S OF THIS FRONT AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD
ACCOMPANYING THE SHORT-WAVE FEATURES /INCLUDING MID-LEVEL FLOW IN
EXCESS OF 60 TO 70 KT/...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY.

THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. DAY 5...WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND BUT MORE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. WITH STRONG WIND FIELD PERSISTING AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY S/E OF THE FRONT...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TO CONTINUE INVOF THE FRONT DAY 5.

..GOSS.. 05/27/2008

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