SWOD48
SPC AC 310854
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008
VALID 031200Z - 081200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...D4 /TUE JUN 3RD/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE
AMPLITUDE AND MOVEMENT OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE N-CNTRL
STATES. THE SURFACE PATTERNS ARE MORE SIMILAR WITH A LOW DEVELOPING
FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. AIR
MASS ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY AND TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE. GIVEN THE
MODERATELY STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...LARGE-SCALE PATTERN APPEARS TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT AND
EWD MOVEMENT OF SEVERE MCS/S ALONG W-E BAROCLINIC ZONE.
...D5 /WED JUN 4TH/...
ABOVE-MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD INTO
THE NERN STATES...HOWEVER LARGER DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE IN THE
EWD PROGRESSION AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM. DIFFERENCES ALSO
INCREASE IN EVOLUTION OF ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM. GIVEN THESE
DIFFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF AIR MASS STABILITY OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND NEW ENGLAND...NO SEVERE WEATHER AREA WILL
BE DELINEATED.
ELSEWHERE...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN
INTENSIFICATION OF UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
...D6 /THU JUN 5TH/ THROUGH D8 /SAT JUN 7TH/...
THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SHOWN MORE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND ARE
RATHER SIMILAR IN THE EVOLUTION OF A POWERFUL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL
U.S. ON D6 WITH THIS SYSTEM LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON D7. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS ON D6 IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP NNEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH TRAILING
COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES ON D6 AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON D7.
THIS LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS INDICATIVE OF A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK
OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS ON D6...CONTINUING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY ON D7.
..MEAD.. 05/31/2008
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