SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012156
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-012330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0758
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0456 PM CDT THU MAY 01 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...NWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 012156Z - 012330Z
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z...MORE
PROBABLE INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY BETWEEN 00-03Z AS STRONGER
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND COLD FRONT OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE.
STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL SHEAR WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS INITIALLY LIKELY GROWING UPSCALE INTO A QUASI-LINEAR
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM LATER THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL /SOME POSSIBLY
SIGNIFICANT/...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD OCCUR.
A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
RECENT VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE DEEPENING CU FIELD ALONG THE
DRYLINE FROM AROUND 20 E PNC TO STJ. 21Z TOP RAOB DEPICTED NEARLY
COMPLETE REMOVAL OF CAPPING INVERSION...EVEN WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER 50S SAMPLING JUST W OF DRY LINE. MODIFYING FOR LOWER
60S DEW POINTS WITHIN THE MOIST SECTOR YIELDS A MODERATE TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. STILL WITH ONLY
MODEST ASCENT ALONG THE DRY LINE ATTM...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE GROWTH PRIOR TO 00Z.
TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MORE PROBABLE AFTER 00Z AS STRONGER FORCED
ASCENT SPREADS EWD /AS INDICATED BY HIGH-BASED CONVECTION OVER SWRN
KS/...AND AS SURFACE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY INTERSECTS THE DRY LINE.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH A RETREAT OF THE DRY
LINE FARTHER W FROM NEAR ICT TO TOP BY 03Z AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKS
AND STRENGTHENS WITH RESPONSE TO APPROACHING WAVE. ABUNDANT
DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEAR WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION
AND LIKELY SUPERCELLS WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT...AND ATTENDANT
THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES.
..GRAMS.. 05/01/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
36629670 36699729 37049788 37619784 38139712 39039604
39819537 40159494 39999450 38929469 37769534 36909609
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