MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0777

ACUS11 KWNS 022047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022047
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-022245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0777
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 PM CDT FRI MAY 02 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN THROUGH SRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 022047Z - 022245Z

STORMS HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE LAST
HOUR OR SO. A CONDITIONAL THREAT EXISTS FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WIND. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
WW.

THIS AFTERNOON A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN NERN IA
THROUGH SRN WI. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SEWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH ERN
IA AND WRN IL. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR SO FAR HAS BEEN THE MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH HAS REMAINED
WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS. HOWEVER...EXIT REGION OF MID
LEVEL JET IS LIFTING NEWD THROUGH NRN IL AND SRN WI. COOLING AND
LIFT ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AND SOME DIABATIC HEATING
HAS CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF 500 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN
IL. RECENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN DISCRETE STORMS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SRN WI...AS WELL AS INTENSIFICATION OF A
LINE OF CONVECTION LIFTING NWD INTO SERN MN. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS
CONFINED TO A NARROW ZONE ACROSS SERN MN AND SRN WI WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL JET IS INCREASING IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT RESULTING IN
0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS SUFFICIENT FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYLONES. STORMS MAY
POSE A THREAT FOR BRIEF...ISOLATED TORNADOES AS THEY LIFT NWD AND
CROSS THE WARM FRONT BEFORE BECOMING ELEVATED ON THE COOL SIDE.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LINE OF STORMS
MOVING NWD INTO SERN MN. OVERALL THREAT REMAINS CONDITIONAL DUE TO
THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

..DIAL.. 05/02/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...

43238815 42818864 42778993 43129118 43349247 43779238
44139067 44008933 43748836

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