SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140129
TXZ000-140300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0911
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0829 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 314...
VALID 140129Z - 140300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 314
CONTINUES.
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL WW
TO THE EAST OF WW 314.
ONGOING VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING
INTO A MORE ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. THIS IS
OCCURRING IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE
LIFTING ACROSS THE TEXAS BIG BEND REGION. DEEP LAYER WESTERLY MEAN
ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SOMEWHAT MODEST
20-30 KT STORM MOTION. BUT...EASTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL WINDS
MAY SUPPORT 40-50 KT STORM INFLOW...AND HELP MAINTAIN A SEVERE
THREAT WEST THROUGH NORTH OF SAN ANTONIO INTO THE AUSTIN AND PERHAPS
TEMPLE AREAS BY 04-06Z. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION
ARE CHARACTERIZED BY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE
OF LARGE HAIL...AND AN INCREASING RISK FOR DOWNBURSTS ACCOMPANIED BY
DAMAGING SURFACE WIND GUSTS.
..KERR.. 05/14/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
31150025 31519959 31799883 31739807 31039776 30399782
29829822 29479891 29169952 29110013 29370074 29870078
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