SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140338
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-140515-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0912
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1038 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN OK...NW AR...SWRN THRU CNTRL/NE MO
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 312...
VALID 140338Z - 140515Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 312 CONTINUES.
BUT...THE SEVERE THREAT IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.
FORCING AHEAD OF THE TAIL END OF THE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN BRANCH
TROUGH PROGRESSING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY HELP
MAINTAIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH 06Z AND BEYOND. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY IS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE NARROW TONGUE OF STRONGER PRE-
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIR...STILL GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF A
SEDALIA/JOPLIN LINE. AND...THE PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN WITH LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS ALREADY VEERING TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT. AS EASTERLY
STORM RELATIVE INFLOW WEAKENS/STABILIZES...THE INTENSITY OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.
..KERR.. 05/14/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...
36999471 38269360 39319312 40349185 40579008 39818977
38739004 37409107 35629336 34839595
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