SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150302
TXZ000-150430-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0932
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1002 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL TX INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 322...323...
VALID 150302Z - 150430Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 322...323...CONTINUES.
THROUGH 04Z...THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST IN A
50-60 NM WIDE CORRIDOR FROM JUST E OF JCT EWD TO NEAR CLL.
AS OF 0245Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A CLUSTER OF STRONG
TO SEVERE TSTMS /ANCHORED ON THE S END BY A LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL/
FROM BELL COUNTY SWD INTO TRAVIS COUNTY WITH A GENERAL SYSTEM MOTION
OF 275/25 KT. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE ANCHOR
SUPERCELL IS MOVING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
N OF AUS EWD TO NEAR CLL. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY
REMAINS WARM AND QUITE MOIST WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. BASED
ON 00Z BRO/CRP SOUNDINGS...THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG
STORMS WILL PERSIST GIVEN THE OBSERVED STRONG CAP.
THE LEDBETTER PROFILER INDICATES THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS GRADUALLY
INCREASING WITH KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THE MAINTENANCE
OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. AND AS SUCH...A TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS
POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELL MOVING ACROSS WILLIAMSON AND TRAVIS COUNTIES
IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY TEND TO
INCREASE WITH TIME SHOULD ONGOING STORMS BETTER ORGANIZE A COLD
POOL.
FARTHER TO THE W...ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
FROM LLANO AND BURNETT COUNTIES WWD TO EDWARDS COUNTY TO THE N OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TRAILING THE ABOVE-MENTIONED STORMS. LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS AS THESE STORMS CONTINUE EWD.
..MEAD.. 05/15/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT...LUB...MAF...
29780198 30400192 30400106 31230106 31270021 31660036
33040024 33049585 32019591 31209548 30759556 30079578
29559667 29449725 29389862 27109873 27149949
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