SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150440
TXZ000-150545-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0933
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 150440Z - 150545Z
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS AND SOME HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE E OF WW 323 BETWEEN
0500-0530Z. SHOULD STORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY...WW 323 MAY NEED
TO BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN AREA OR AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS AS OF 0430Z OVER PORTIONS OF WW
323...THE MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH IS A BOWING LINE SEGMENT FROM FALLS
AND LIMESTONE COUNTIES SWWD TO MILAM AND LEE COUNTIES IN CNTRL TX.
THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING EWD AT 25-30 KT AND EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT
MOTION TAKES IT E OF WW 323 BY 0530Z. AIR MASS OVER CNTRL/ERN TX
REMAINS WARM...QUITE MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF
1500-2500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
INTENSE AND LONG-LIVED ONGOING STORMS WILL BE GIVEN THE RATHER
STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS REGION.
CURRENT LEDBETTER PROFILER INDICATES STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
ALONG WITH 50-60 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED/BOWING STORM STRUCTURES. SHOULD ONGOING STORMS CONTINUE
TO ORGANIZE A COLD POOL...THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
SOME SEVERE HAIL MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS E OF WW 323.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF AN ADDITIONAL WW.
..MEAD.. 05/15/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
30379556 31559557 31969599 32529601 32699570 32729488
32059421 31269408 30429446 30019520
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