SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230443
KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-TXZ000-230545-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0980
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NEB...KS...OK
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 339...
VALID 230443Z - 230545Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 339 CONTINUES.
TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS NRN KS AS STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF HLC TRACK NNEWD INTO THE WARM/
STATIONARY FRONT...LOCATED WNW-ESE IN NRN KS...AND CONTINUE TO
ENCOUNTER EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 300-700 M2/S2. NEW TSTM
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF HLC WITHIN ZONE OF WAA
ALONG SSELY LLJ WHICH EXTENDED INTO THIS REGION. NEWD MOVING BOWING
STRUCTURE APPROACHING ERN NEB HAS SLOWED IN ITS EWD PROGRESSION /30
KT/. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THIS LINE MOVES FARTHER NEWD
INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN STRENGTH /40-50 KT/ OF GRADIENT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD.
FARTHER S...A COUPLE OF LONG-LIVED TSTM CLUSTERS...1) TRACKING EWD
THROUGH CENTRAL OK...AND 2) TRACKING ENEWD THROUGH NWRN OK/SRN KS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED WITHIN
INSTABILITY AXIS WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES REMAINING
SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED ORGANIZED STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER... LOW
LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG LLJ AXIS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND THUS
SUPPORTIVE FOR A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THE SRN PART OF WW
339. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
NERN OK INTO SERN KS WITHIN APPARENT ZONE OF WEAK WAA. GIVEN
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR...A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD ALSO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
..PETERS.. 05/23/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...
35919596 35419710 35459928 35889993 38200019 39400033
41000038 41019686 38849646 38099591
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